nette Theorien von Robert X. Cringely über Skyped, The Likely Sale of Skype Will Be Another Kick in the Head to Old-Line Phone Companies Worldwide:
If Skype has 20 million regular users (there are 2.6 million signed-in right now as I am writing this) and 10 percent of those can be converted to SkypeIn, that’s $74 million in revenue with some inevitable SkypeOut volume, too. In short, it is a business. But is it a business worth $3 billion?… The big difference between Skype and Hotmail or ICQ is that Skype threatens existing, highly profitable franchises. As free e-mail, Hotmail may have threatened paid e-mail services, but there were no hugely profitable paid e-mail services. And ICQ threatened nobody. But Skype absolutely takes money out of the pockets of existing telephone companies. And since the value of a telephone subscriber is generally a known quantity, the value of an active Skype customer can be at least guesstimated.
Was auch immer mit Skype passieren mag, es ist mE neben Google der absolute Kracher in den letzten Jahren. Flickr war dagegen ein Fliegenschiss.